“Once human beings realize something can be done, they’re not satisfied until they’ve done it.” – Frank Herbert, Author

31.12.yc118 J102407 < C-C00086 Constellation < C-R00010 Region

#MyEVEStory by Rixx Javix

To be called a Stargazer by my homeworld, Achura (Saisio III)… that would be the pinnacle of all that I could achieve. I’m not one for stereotypes, they generalize far too much and individualization is lost. Yet, I can’t deny how typical I am of my kind. At least if you believe all that you learn about the Achur from the widely available public resources.

It is true: I am reclusive. I am an introvert. I have little interest in material things. I am deeply spiritual. I do desire to unlock the secrets of New Eden. I am one of those Achur pilots you’ve heard about that has left the confines of our homeworld and have set sail for the stars.

For those that don’t know me or my mission, you can learn more from one of those public resources. I’m currently in Phase III of my mission, which is to visit every system in New Eden. Phase I, Empire Space, began on December 1st, yc111 (2009) and was completed on July 4th, yc116 (2014). Phase II, Null Sec began on July 9th, yc116 (2014) and was completed on November 26th, yc117 (2015).

J104632 VII

On January 3rd, yc118 (2016), I began Phase III, to explore all of wormhole Space (W-Space). My first stop was Thera, where I was welcomed by my corp, Signal Cartel, and after the celebrations, I set sail to continue my main mission. I spent the first few months based out of Thera. It was only after a week of exploring W-Space from Thera, that I encountered my first duplicate system, a system I had already visited. After encountering more and more duplicate systems over the next couple of months, I decided it was time to wander. I spent maybe a month wandering from hole to hole, before settling into a class 5 wormhole that appeared to not be lived in that contained a class 6 static connection. I wanted to focus on class 6 wormholes and see how many I could find based out of one system. I spent about 6 months, between that wormhole, a little more wandering, and then settling into another class 5 with a class 6 connection. Somewhere during that time, I changed out ships as well, from my Tengu to a Raptor, in order to take advantage of the small wormhole connection types. The time was well worth it as I did find 90 out of the 118 class 6 wormholes, but it was very slow going.

Too slow, really. As a comparison, you can see I discovered a total of 529 wormhole systems during yc118. Compared to my progress from the prior two years in

J161119 VI, Moon 1, Pioneer

K-Space, which was over 2,000 systems per year for yc116 and yc117, I’m now exploring at a quarter of the speed that I was before. With there being 2,604 wormhole systems that we know of, this journey at this pace will take another 4 years and that’s not taking into account the difficulty to find the systems I need in a timely manner. As more and more systems are found, the hay stack grows, and the needle becomes more difficult to find.

…

As I let that sink in, but before I could spiral down the hole to where those thoughts were leading me, Chester nudged me in the back. Chester, the slaver hound gift that Mynxee gave me when I visited Thera, before I departed for this phase of my journey. I named him after my Grandfather and he, like my Grandfather, have been an inspiration to me to keep going. There really couldn’t have been a better gift, because at times when I’ve sailed too close to the abyss and think my mind is lost, Chester is there… encouraging me… “my little Stargazer.”

Jester’s Trek by Rixx Javix

“Knowledge is the death of research” – Walther Hermann Nernst, Chemist

12.04.yc118 J163408 < E-C00264 < Region E-R00026

Rather than lead you through the data analysis of Phase II, let’s cut to the chase and reveal the results.

The null hypothesis: Based on region, known wormhole types are randomly connecting to other regions of space within the known expected distribution by type to the destination region using a significance level of 0.05.

Conclusion based on Phase II data: Since the p-values are greater than the significance level of 0.05, we accept the null hypothesis. The observed distribution is from the same population as the expected distribution.

TLDR: Known wormhole connections are equally random.

Phase II

Project Coordinator: Katia Sae
Project Liaison: Merkato Cesaille
Technical Lead: David Louis
Project Specialist: Ashlar Maidstone, Soul Darkshade
Research Team: Forcha Alendare, Alek Azam, Lucas Ballard, Triffton Ambraelle, enkidu nagata, Sanibel, Lucas Ballard, Mushroom Greene, Theo Fugger, Caleb Wolfram, Akatsuki Hikage, Pileto, Mako Koskanaiken, Earthling Jaer, Vladimir Gengodov, Gorgan Fullsail, Caille Sinclair, Jen Outamon

Read on if you’re interested in some of the details. I’ll specifically target our exceptions from Phase I.

Presentations

• Phase I Results
• Phase II Results

Check out these post for more information about Project “W”, how it came about, and the Phase I results.

• W-Space – Why you not random?
• Project “W” First Jump Results

Get on with it!

From September to the end of November yc118 (2016), there were a total of 15,305 connections observed. From that data set, I used the known connection types for the analysis which gave me a total of 4,902 connections to analyze. Compared to the 300 connections from Phase I, we increased our sample size by a factor of 16.34. With this data set, we were able to meet the following conditions of the Chi-square Goodness of Fit test as follows:

• Sampling method is simple random sampling. Our observed connections are equally likely to occur in our expected destination population (Regions). Passed.
• Variable under study (connection type) is categorical (Regions). Passed.
• The expected value of the number of sample connections in each level of the variable is at least 5. Passed.

From Phase I, our anomalies concerned High Sec, specifically the Genesis and Molden Heath regions, and Class 5 wormholes, specifically region E-R00024. Let’s compare them.

Phase I High Sec

Phase II High Sec

As you can see, our High Sec observations by region went from a range of 0 to 9 to a range of our minimum of 5 to 120.

Class 5 Phase I

Class 5 Phase II

High Sec by Chi-sq Phase I

High Sec by Chi-sq Phase II

Class 5 by Chi-sq Phase I

Class 5 by Chi-sq Phase II

Our Class 5 observations by region went from a range of 0 to 7 to a range of 5 to 50.

Comparing our Chi-square ranking, you can see our anomalies normalized with the other regions with the additional data collected.

Conclusion

That’s really all there is to it. The research is a good lesson that conclusions can’t be drawn until all of the conditions of a given test are met. In this case, our Phase I data we didn’t have the minimum of 5 observations for each region of New Eden. Our Phase II data met that requirement and we were able to show that, at least for known wormhole connections, the destination region is equally random.

Where to from here?

I’m going to look at K162 connections and see if there are any abnormalities to be found there. My thought process is this: A K162 connection should randomly connect to anywhere, be it High Sec, Low Sec, Null Sec, or W-Space. The caveat is this, when reviewing the K162 connection, it will give you an indication of what type of space it leads to, just like our known wormhole connections did from our previous two analysis. I’m going to go with the assumption that until you look at the connection, it could lead anywhere. I’ll call this Phase III and use the same data set we just collected. Stay tuned…